It highlights the severe economic and foreign trade repercussions of the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has caused massive disruptions in global energy markets and maritime bottlenecks since early 2026. IHS researchers Martin Ertl, Sebastian Koch, and Klaus Weyerstraß co-authored the report, together with researchers from partner institutions.
Key findings:
- Energy Supply and Maritime Chokepoints: The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and threats to the Bab al-Mandab strait are severely straining the global transport of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Although Europe has largely diversified its imports following the crises of previous years, the drastically increased world market prices for energy are directly impacting the European and Austrian economies through cost hikes and supply chain disruptions.
- Foreign Trade and Economic Activity: Despite geopolitical strains, global trade proved resilient in the summer of 2026. For Austria, real export growth of 2.9% is expected for 2026. This recovery is primarily driven by an uptick in demand from key trading partners such as Germany. Nevertheless, domestic export industries are continuing to lose real market shares slightly, as competitiveness is strained by high energy costs.
- Inflation and Monetary Policy: The renewed surge in energy prices has intensified inflationary pressures in Austria and the euro area once again. IHS forecasts an average inflation rate of 3.1% for Austria in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027. Service sector inflation is proving to be particularly persistent. In response, the ECB raised interest rates during the course of the year, causing financing conditions for businesses and households to worsen compared to previous years.
- Energy-Intensive Industry: An analysis of the specific production index for Austria's energy-intensive industries shows that while the current price shock has left limited marks, these sectors are still suffering from the lingering effects of the massive strains experienced in prior years (including relocation effects abroad).
The complete FIW Annual Report (October 2026 Update) is available on the FIW research platform and provides detailed analyses of international framework conditions, monetary developments, and sectoral trade linkages. IHS has been a member of FIW since spring 2025 and regularly contributes its expertise, for example as part of the FIW Trade Indicator.