JVM Seminar: Jesper Linde (Sveriges Riksbank)

Resolving the Missing Deflation Puzzle

Abstract: We propose a resolution of the missing deflation puzzle. Our resolution stresses the impor- tance of nonlinearities in price- and wage-setting when the economy is exposed to large shocks. We show that a nonlinear macroeconomic model with real rigidities resolves the missing deflation puzzle, while a linearized version of the same underlying nonlinear model fails to do so. In addition, our nonlinear model reproduces the skewness of inflation and other macroeconomic variables observed in post-war U.S. data. All told, our results caution against the common practice of using linearized models to study inflation and output dynamics.

Co-Autor: Mathias Trabandt (Freie Universität Berlin, School of Business and Economics)