The Covid-19 pandemic and the policies implemented to contain the spread of the virus have led to a global economic downturn. The Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) forecasts a recession in Austria, where economic output will decline by at least 2% in 2020. This forecast is based on the assumption that the policies implemented to contain the spread of the virus will be lifted by mid-April. Therefore, these predictions of the economic downturn should be viewed with the understanding that they are dependent on the development of the pandemic and the accompanying economic, political and health policies.
The rise of China in the world economy and its growing importance as international investor raises concerns of policy makers in some countries. The US government raised tariffs on imports from China to tackle the large trade deficit of the US vis-à-vis China. Trade between the euro area and China is almost balanced, with a small deficit in trade with goods and a small surplus in the services balance of the euro area.Thus, European policy makers are well advice to advocate free market access, but reciprocity is important.
The weakness of the global economy is weighing on the Austrian economy. After 2.4 % in the previous year, GDP growth is estimated to edge down to 1.6 % in the current year. For the years 2020 and 2021, growth is projected at 1.3 % and 1.6 % respectively.
Keeping in mind the fact of an aging population an the resulting increase in the need for long-term care, it is essential to ensure the financing of long-term care. Since other Western European countries face similar challenges, it is worth to look beyond Austria's borders in order to gain startin points for improving the Austrian care system.
The reform-program Ausbildung bis 18 aims at keeping young adults in some form of education until they reach the age of 18. Avoiding early school dropout is of high importance for all affected. The program is advisable in the economic sense as well: In the long term, IHS expects a rise in GDP of 1,27 percent or 4,4 billion Euros.
Germany’s leading economics research institutes have revised their economic forecast for Germany significantly downward. Whereas in the spring they still expected gross domestic product to grow by 0.8 percent in 2019, they now expect GDP growth to be only 0.5 percent. Reasons for the poor performance are the falling worldwide demand for capital goods – in the exporting of which the Germany economy is specialized – as well as political uncertainty and structural changes in the automotive industry.
This years Vienna Healthcare Lectures are focussed on finding ways towards a more patient-centered health care system.
The Austrian economy is on a solid growth path. For the period 2019 to 2023, the Institute expects real GDP to grow by an average of 1.6 % per year, after 1.8 % in the past five years. Output in Austria should thus grow slightly more strongly than in the euro area (1.4 %).
Obesity is on the rise on a global scale which leads to major challenges for health care systems. The food industry plays a questionabel role in the process.
The European Commission published its flagship report on the future of road transport, which deals about implications of automated, connected, low-carbon and shared mobility. IHS senior researcher Robert Braun contributed a chapter on privacy, democracy and social fairness, addressing ways in which cities can support the transition towards sustainable urban mobility.
Since the second half of 2018, the global economy has expanded only moderately. In line with international developments, the upswing of the Austrian economy has lost momentum. The more unfavourable international environment weighs particularly on industrial production. As domestic demand is likely to remain robust, the Institute expects the Austrian economy to continue to grow by 1.5 % this year and 1.6 % next year.
The announcement by the ÖVP to introduce the smoking ban in the version that was going to be implemented in 2015 is gratifying. The 2015 act was well thought out and the result of years of negotiations. We take the ÖVP at its word and assume that, except for small details, nothing will change.
On behalf of the city of Vienna, IHS analysed part-time employment in Vienna. Between 2004 and 2017 the authors of the study found a rise in part-time employment of 140.000 people (85%).
GDP growth in the euro area slowed further in the second half of 2018 and is likely to remain weak at the beginning of 2019. GDP growth in Austria also lost momentum through 2018, after a strong start at the beginning of the year. Supported by robust domestic demand, the Austrian economy is expected to grow by 1.5 % in 2019 and 1.6 % in 2020, after 2.7 % in 2018.
On wednesday, the second meeting of the platform for register research convened at IHS. More than 30 representatives of multiple research institutions attended to debate the latest developments regarding the access to public data stocks for science.
Growth in productivity has weakened in Austria - and most other industrial countries - over the past decades. In his Policy Brief, Klaus Weyerstrass identifies ways to increase growth in productivity which is necessary to maintain and prosperity.