Spring Forecast of the Austrian Economy 2022–2023

War in Ukraine weighs on upswing

The war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia are weighing on the global economy. The sharp increase in uncertainty has put further pressure on already high commodity and energy prices.The sanctions are leading to a decline in exports, and supply chain disruptions are likely to intensify, at least in the short term. As a result, the post-pandemic economic recovery is slowing. The IHS has lowered its forecast for GDP growth to 3.6 % this year and 2.3 % next year. Driven primarily by high energy prices, inflation is expected to reach 5.5 % in 2022 and 2.3 % in 2023, respectively, significantly more than expected in December. The current economic forecast is subject to a high degree of uncertainty and considerable downside risks. Policy measures targeted to cushion the impact of high inflation should be properly implemented and should not counteract the allocative effects of high prices for fossil fuels.

IHS Economic Forecast