High uncertainty and moderate growth due to the coronavirus crisis
The coronavirus crisis and the containment measures have triggered a very deep global recession. In the current year, gross domestic product in Austria is likely to fall by a historic 7 ¼ %. However, the economic recovery should begin as early as the second half of the current year, and economic output should return to pre-crisis levels in the course of 2022. For the entire forecast period 2020 to 2024, the IHS expects real GDP to increase by an average of ¾ % per year. The economic recovery will trigger a gradual pick-up of Inflation; however, with a maximum of 2 ¼ % in 2024, the inflationary pressure should remain moderate. The coronavirus crisis has caused an extremely sharp rise in unemployment. However, starting from 10 ¼ % this year, the unemployment rate should fall to 8 % by the end of the forecast period. Public budgets will be heavily burdened by the deep economic slump and the necessary fiscal policy measures. Economic policy should focus on strengthening the growth potential, which would facilitate the necessary budget consolidation.