Economics and Finance

In evaluating prediction models, many researchers flank comparative ex-ante prediction experiments by significance tests on accuracy improvement, such as the Diebold-Mariano test. We argue that basing the choice of prediction models on such significance tests is problematic, as this practice may favor the null model, usually a simple benchmark. We explore the validity of this argument by extensive Monte Carlo simulations with linear (ARMA) and nonlinear (SETAR) generating processes. For many parameter constellations, we find that utilization of additional significance tests in selecting the forecasting model fails to improve predictive accuracy.

The extended Hodrick-Prescott (HP) method was developed by Polasek (2011) for a class of data smoother based on second order smoothness. This paper develops a new extended HP smoothing model that can be applied for spatial smoothing problems. In Bayesian smoothing we need a linear regression model with a strong prior based on differencing matrices for the smoothness parameter and a weak prior for the regression part. We define a Bayesian spatial smoothing model with neighbors for each observation and we define a smoothness prior similar to the HP filter in time series. This opens a new approach to model-based smoothers for time series and spatial models based on MCMC. We apply it to the NUTS-2 regions of the European Union for regional GDP and GDP per capita, where the fixed effects are removed by an extended HP smoothing model.

Representation of continuous-time ARMA, CARMA, models is reviewed. Computational aspects of simulating and calculating the likelihood-function of CARMA are summarized. Some numerical properties are illustrated by simulations. Some real data applications are shown.

Do apparently large minimum wage increases in an environment of straightened economic circumstances produce clearer evidence of disemployment effects than is typically reported in the new economics of the minimum wage? The present paper augments the sparse literature covering the very latest increases in the U.S. minimum wage, using three different data sets and the principal estimation strategies for handling geographically-disparate trends. Despite the seemingly more favorable milieu for identifying displacement effects, and although our treatment calls into question one well-received estimation strategy, our preferred specification generally fails to support a finding of negative employment effects. That is to say, minimum-wage workers are apparently concentrated in sectors of the economy for which the labor demand response to statutory wage hikes is minimal. Popular concern with a “recessionary multiplier” thus seems overdone.

We extend fixed-b asymptotic theory to the nonparametric Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests. We show that the fixed-b limits depend on nuisance parameters in a complicated way. These non-pivotal limits provide an alternative theoretical explanation for the well known finite sample problems of PP tests. We also show that the fixed-b limits depend on whether deterministic trends are removed using one-step or two-step approaches, contrasting the asymptotic equivalence of the one- and two-step approaches under a consistency approximation for the long run variance estimator. Based on these results we introduce modified PP tests that allow for fixed-b inference. The theoretical analysis is cast in the framework of near-integrated processes which allows to study the asymptotic behavior both under the unit root null hypothesis as well as for local alternatives. The performance of the original and modified tests is compared by means of local asymptotic power and a small simulation study.

We analyze the role of government intertemporal budget policies in a growing open economy including nominal assets in the presence of an upward sloping supply of debt. This introduces transitional dynamics that influence the effects of government policy instruments on the long term fiscal liability. In particular, shifts in capital income taxes can lead to dynamic scoring effects through the evolution of foreign debt. We show that a combination of tax-cum-expenditure, or government expenditure alone can balance the long term government budget constraint. However, for certain combinations of parameter values, the capital income tax alone cannot balance the intertemporal budget.

This study develops new rank tests for panels that include panel unit root tests as a special case. The tests are unusual in that they can accommodate very general forms of both serial and cross-sectional dependence, including cross-unit cointegration, without the need to specify the form of dependence or estimate nuisance parameters associated with the dependence. The tests retain high power in small samples, and in contrast to other tests that accommodate cross-sectional dependence, the limiting distributions are valid for panels with finite cross-sectional dimensions.

We study the environmental and economic effects of public abatement in the presence of multiple stable steady-state ecological equilibria. Under shallow-lake dynamics (SLD), the isocline for the stock of pollution features two stable branches, a good and a bad one. Assuming that the ecology is initially located on the upper (bad) branch of the isocline, the ecological equilibrium is hysteretic and a suitably designed temporary abatement policy can be used to steer the environment from the bad to the good equilibrium. In all models considered in this paper, a “cold turkey” abatement policy is optimal, i.e. the largest feasible shock should be administered for the shortest possible amount of time. Depending on the particular model used to characterize the economic system, there is a capital feedback effect that either helps or hinders the attainment of a successful abatement policy.

We construct a tractable discrete-time overlapping generations model of a closed economy and use it to study government redistribution of accidental bequests and private annuities in general equilibrium. Individuals face longevity risk as there is a positive probability of passing away before the retirement period. We find non-pathological cases where it is better for long-run welfare to waste accidental bequests than to give them to the elderly. Next we study the introduction of a perfectly competitive life insurance market offering actuarially fair annuities. There exists a tragedy of annuitization: although full annuitization of assets is privately optimal it is not socially beneficial due to adverse general equilibrium repercussions.

This paper investigates the consequences of pension reform for life-cycle unemployment and retirement. We find that (i) improving actuarial fairness in pension assessment not only boosts old age participation but also reduces unemployment among prime age workers and raises welfare; (ii) strengthening the tax benefit link boosts life-cycle labor supply on all margins and welfare; (iii) excluding unemployment benefits from the pension assessment base reduces unemployment, encourages later retirement and boosts efficiency; and (iv) extending the calculation period favors employment of young workers, might possibly lead to more unemployment among older ones, encourages postponed retirement and most likely yields positive welfare gains.